Forget the South: "Consider the numbers. Democrats and Republicans agree that Bush and his eventual rival will each start the race with an ironclad base of states that are virtually unwinnable for the other party. Bush's base is rooted in the South, plains and interior West of the country, while the Democratic nominee can take for granted most of New England, the West Coast and a smattering of the Midwest. Most strategists calculate that Bush can count on 20 states with 170 electoral votes, and that the Democratic candidate starts with 11 states and the District of Columbia, totaling 168 electoral votes. That leaves the two candidates with a battleground of just 19 swing states.
Nine of those 19 states -- none of them in the South -- went for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and for Gore in 2000. These are the blue-leaning states, and any Democratic candidate has to lock them up before dipping his toe below the Mason-Dixon line. Victory in all nine would increase the Democrat's total to 260 electoral votes, still 10 short of victory.
That leaves 10 "